BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bushtit In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Bushtit in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bushtit has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bushtit In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.002.4
20270.640.002.3
20280.600.002.3
20290.560.002.2
20300.530.002.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Bushtit in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElktonOREGON222024
RuchOREGON162015
IssaquahWASHINGTON131986
CamasWASHINGTON122005
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON102024
OzetteWASHINGTON101994
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON82024
Cool CampOREGON72001
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON72019
DeceptionWASHINGTON72017
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA62019
HullvilleCALIFORNIA62019
Rio DellCALIFORNIA62007
HauserOREGON61980
DerbyOREGON61990
CanbyOREGON62025
RainierWASHINGTON62025
Mendota 2WASHINGTON61997
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA52025
MccloudCALIFORNIA52021
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA52021
Myrtle GroveOREGON52023
CinderellaOREGON52024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON52025
KamilcheWASHINGTON51995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.