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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-tailed Hummingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.14–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.14–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.141.6
20270.880.141.6
20280.880.141.6
20290.870.141.6
20300.870.141.6

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.3120251992
Portal1020251976
Mt. Graham920251995
Pinetop820221994
Flagstaff620251988
Aztec Peak619781974
Happy Jack620251977
Alpine520251992
Tsaile520231993
Sprucedale420251992
Sawmill320061989
Blue319911975
Yampai219761976
Prescott220251974
Mormon Lake219751968
Hunt220181976
Redington220252000
Carr Mtn220141986
Mt Trumbull119781978
House Rock120221976
Black Mesa119891988
Round Rock119701969
Rose Wells119681968
Dragoon120001996
Rucker120091996

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.