BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-tailed Hummingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.10–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.10–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.111.5
20260.790.111.5
20270.790.101.5
20280.790.101.5
20290.780.101.5

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Graham1620231995
Pinetop820221994
Aztec Peak619781974
Tonto Vill.620211992
Happy Jack620241977
Portal520241976
Alpine520231992
Tsaile520231993
Flagstaff420221988
Sawmill320061989
Blue319911975
Yampai219761976
Prescott220221974
Mormon Lake219751968
Hunt220181976
Carr Mtn220141986
Mt Trumbull119781978
House Rock120221976
Black Mesa119891988
Round Rock119701969
Rose Wells119681968
Dragoon120001996
Rucker120091996
Zeniff119841984
Sunizona119961983

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.