BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-tailed Hummingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.63–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.63–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.653.3
20262.00.643.3
20272.00.643.3
20282.00.633.3
20292.00.633.3

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft3220241975
Angel Fire2320021992
Gallinas1920241992
Bluewater Lake1420211999
Ojo Sarco1320241968
Angel Fire 21020242005
Capulin819941993
Cebolla620231973
Emory Pass420241993
Salt Lake 2220212017
La Cienega220221969
Pecos220171975
Valencia219961996
Roswell219741974
Shiprock220111997
Vallecitos220241994
Reserve220231993
Pinon220241992
Nageesi120161988
Farley120001981
Fence Lake120191993
Claunch120001987
Horse Spgs120151993
Horse Mtn120191969
Carrizozo120241970

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.