BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-tailed Hummingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.64–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.64–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.663.3
20272.00.663.3
20282.00.653.3
20292.00.653.3
20302.00.643.3

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft3620251975
Angel Fire2320021992
Gallinas2220251992
Ojo Sarco1920251968
Bluewater Lake1420211999
Angel Fire 21220252005
Capulin819941993
Cebolla620231973
Emory Pass320251993
Salt Lake 2220212017
La Cienega220221969
Pecos220171975
Valencia219961996
Roswell219741974
Shiprock220111997
Vallecitos220241994
Reserve220231993
Pinon220241992
Nageesi120161988
Farley120001981
Fence Lake120251993
Claunch120001987
Horse Spgs120251993
Horse Mtn120191969
Carrizozo120241970

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.