BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Analysis

TrochilidaeForest birdsSelasphorus platycercus

Broad-tailed Hummingbird has surged: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+292%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
365RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Broad-tailed Hummingbird

The Broad-tailed Hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus) is a North American member of the Hummingbirds (Trochilidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
3–5 in long (8–13 cm) — a tiny hovering bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 365 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Trochilidae · Forest birds

Notable Broad-tailed Hummingbird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-tailed Hummingbird has surged in surveyed states: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.34–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.34–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.480.320.64
20270.490.320.65
20280.490.330.66
20290.500.340.66
20300.510.340.67

Where the Broad-tailed Hummingbird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird, sized by most recent count.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend by State

Broad-tailed Hummingbird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+43%197035
California-21%19764
Colorado-1%1970108
Idaho+570%198512
Montana-34%19916
Nevada-52%198915
New Mexico-3%197045
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a4
Texasinsufficient datan/a4
Utah-32%197090
Wyoming+547%197742

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin+733%197446
Northern Rockies+564%197452
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+22%1970207
Shortgrass Prairie+285%197512
Sierra Madre Occidental-21%197025
Chihuahuan Desert+131%197516

Broad-tailed Hummingbird Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 292% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.