BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
204Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.2–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.2–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.93.18.7
20265.93.28.7
20275.93.28.7
20286.03.28.7
20296.03.28.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stillwater PassCOLORADO442009
TincupCOLORADO362024
Gold HillCOLORADO352012
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO312019
AspenCOLORADO292024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO282024
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO282014
Steamboat L.COLORADO262024
Comanche PkCOLORADO262024
Fox CreekCOLORADO252024
Gold Hill 2COLORADO242024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO232002
CastletonCOLORADO222024
HeeneyCOLORADO222019
Cheesman LkCOLORADO212024
Wet Mtns.COLORADO212024
Lost LakeCOLORADO192024
Blackhead PkCOLORADO192021
GallinasNEW-MEXICO192024
BeckUTAH181987
Wasatch NfUTAH182024
Fox ParkWYOMING172024
ParlinCOLORADO152023
Dolores RivCOLORADO152024
Rollins PassCOLORADO152022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.