BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+119%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-tailed Hummingbird has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.8
20261.20.003.8
20271.20.003.8
20281.20.003.8
20291.20.003.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO322024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO21974
PinonNEW-MEXICO22024
CornudasTEXAS22006
ToyahvaleTEXAS22003
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11999
RodeoNEW-MEXICO11987
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12016
QueenNEW-MEXICO12004
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12000
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12022
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12011
Salt FlatTEXAS12006
Chisos BasinTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.