BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies has surged: up 564% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+564%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-tailed Hummingbird has surged in Northern Rockies: up 564% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.13–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.13–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.110.44
20270.280.120.44
20280.280.120.45
20290.290.130.45
20300.290.130.46

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilsonWYOMING222025
AlpineWYOMING62025
SaveryWYOMING51995
RiversideWYOMING42025
Hunter PeakWYOMING42025
WoodruffUTAH32025
Crazy WomanWYOMING32024
Buckskin MtnWYOMING32025
Savery 2WYOMING32025
Colter Bay 2WYOMING32024
ChallisIDAHO22022
RandolphUTAH22025
Neponset ResUTAH21999
Crawford MtsUTAH22023
MooseWYOMING22025
Green RiverWYOMING21978
WalcottWYOMING22025
MaybellCOLORADO11971
Great DivideCOLORADO12011
Browns ParkCOLORADO11995
LayCOLORADO12001
Cape HornIDAHO11990
CentervilleIDAHO11985
AlturasIDAHO11985
Libby DamMONTANA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.