BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies has surged: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+544%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-tailed Hummingbird has surged in Northern Rockies: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.12–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.12–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.100.43
20260.270.110.44
20270.280.110.44
20280.280.120.45
20290.280.120.45

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilsonWYOMING232024
AlpineWYOMING122024
MooseWYOMING62024
WoodruffUTAH52024
SaveryWYOMING51995
RiversideWYOMING32024
Hunter PeakWYOMING32024
Crazy WomanWYOMING32024
Buckskin MtnWYOMING32021
Savery 2WYOMING32024
Colter Bay 2WYOMING32024
ChallisIDAHO22022
Neponset ResUTAH21999
Crawford MtsUTAH22023
Green RiverWYOMING21978
MaybellCOLORADO11971
Great DivideCOLORADO12011
Browns ParkCOLORADO11995
LayCOLORADO12001
Cape HornIDAHO11990
CentervilleIDAHO11985
AlturasIDAHO11985
Libby DamMONTANA11987
St RegisMONTANA12002
EllistonMONTANA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.