BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 285% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+285%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.080.33
20270.210.080.34
20280.210.090.34
20290.220.090.34
20300.220.090.34

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElbertCOLORADO142025
Kiowa 2COLORADO62025
TrincheraCOLORADO22022
KiowaCOLORADO12017
Mica ButteCOLORADO11987
EdisonCOLORADO12017
VillegreenCOLORADO12014
NinaviewCOLORADO12018
KarvalCOLORADO12001
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO12010
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12000
YoderWYOMING11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.