BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+269%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-tailed Hummingbird has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.08–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.08–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.070.32
20260.200.070.33
20270.200.080.33
20280.210.080.33
20290.210.080.34

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElbertCOLORADO122024
TrincheraCOLORADO22022
Kiowa 2COLORADO22024
KiowaCOLORADO12017
Mica ButteCOLORADO11987
EdisonCOLORADO12017
VillegreenCOLORADO12014
NinaviewCOLORADO12018
KarvalCOLORADO12001
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO12010
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12000
YoderWYOMING11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.