BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Great Basin has surged: up 666% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+666%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-tailed Hummingbird has surged in Great Basin: up 665% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.05–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.05–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.040.50
20260.270.040.50
20270.270.040.50
20280.280.040.51
20290.280.050.51

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JarbidgeNEVADA322015
Magic MtnIDAHO182024
HyrumUTAH161979
Hardware RanchUTAH152023
AustinNEVADA72018
NewcastleUTAH52018
WillisNEVADA42024
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA32024
Fish SpringsUTAH32015
Big PineCALIFORNIA21991
Walker CanNEVADA22013
Majors PlaceNEVADA21999
Ruby ValleyNEVADA22000
Humboldt NfNEVADA22006
Oak CityUTAH21998
BerylUTAH22002
GrantsvilleUTAH22018
Pine CreekUTAH22011
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA12021
BartleCALIFORNIA11977
SquirrelIDAHO12024
HenryIDAHO11973
Silver CityIDAHO12002
BatesIDAHO12009
AlmoIDAHO12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.