BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.34–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.34–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.372.7
20271.50.362.7
20281.50.362.7
20291.50.352.7
20301.50.342.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA312025
PortalARIZONA102025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA92025
PinetopARIZONA82022
FlagstaffARIZONA62025
Aztec PeakARIZONA61978
Happy JackARIZONA62025
AlpineARIZONA52025
SprucedaleARIZONA42025
BlueARIZONA31991
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32025
PrescottARIZONA22025
Mormon LakeARIZONA21975
RedingtonARIZONA22025
Carr MtnARIZONA22014
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22023
SunizonaARIZONA11996
WilliamsARIZONA12025
MaineARIZONA12025
Forest LakesARIZONA12025
Clay SpringARIZONA12014
DragoonARIZONA12000
RuckerARIZONA12009
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12011
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.