BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Broad-tailed Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.29–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.29–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.332.5
20261.40.322.5
20271.40.312.5
20281.40.302.5
20291.40.292.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Broad-tailed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. GrahamARIZONA162023
PinetopARIZONA82022
Aztec PeakARIZONA61978
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA62021
Happy JackARIZONA62024
AlpineARIZONA52023
PortalARIZONA52024
FlagstaffARIZONA42022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42024
BlueARIZONA31991
PrescottARIZONA22022
Mormon LakeARIZONA21975
Carr MtnARIZONA22014
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22023
SunizonaARIZONA11996
WilliamsARIZONA12019
MaineARIZONA12023
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
RedingtonARIZONA12000
Clay SpringARIZONA12014
SprucedaleARIZONA12023
DragoonARIZONA12000
RuckerARIZONA12009
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12011
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.