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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Arizona has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.033.4
20271.70.013.4
20281.70.013.4
20291.70.003.4
20301.70.003.4

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley3020241996
Skull Valley 21820252025
Forest Lakes1220251992
Pinetop1220221993
Portal1020251975
Rucker920001993
Zeniff819841968
Sunizona819971988
Black Mesa719921988
Tonto Vill.720251994
Cow Springs620221992
Mt Trumbull519791979
Aztec Peak519781974
Seligman520251991
Dragoon420091993
Blue419911974
Bartlett Res420251992
Yampai319771969
Rose Wells319771968
Prescott320251974
Hunt320181976
Redington320251993
Tsaile320221996
Round Rock219701970
Mormon Lake219751968

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.