BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in New Mexico is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.09–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in New Mexico is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.09–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.192.6
20271.40.172.6
20281.30.142.5
20291.30.112.5
20301.30.092.5

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Cienega1420221968
Claunch1420001978
Pecos1320171973
Emory Pass1020251993
Carrizozo920251968
Cloudcroft919791977
Horse Spgs820251977
Mcgaffey820251994
Reserve820251994
Vicks Peak820251992
Claunch 2820252001
Stinking Lk.719991992
Capitan Mtn.520171993
Pinon520241992
Magdalena420251997
Gallinas420251992
Quemado419971992
Mountainair420241992
Aztec419891989
Capulin319931993
Crownpoint319951989
Torreon320211995
Dulce320252000
Laborcita320021996
La Plata320131990

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.