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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has fallen sharply in Nevada: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada is projected to rise about 337% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±297.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+337%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±297.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada is projected to rise about 337% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±297.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.001.8
20260.470.001.8
20270.470.001.8
20280.470.001.8
20290.470.001.8

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Minerva10920151995
Dobbin Creek4020111995
Ruby Valley419991997
Comins Lake320142006
Majors Place320051996
Jean Lake320102010
Cortez220221970
Austin220152008
Meadow Vally220161996
Jarbidge220061997
Nixon220182018
Gardnerville 2220242018
Ranchogrande120211988
Fish Creek120142001
Walker Can120221968
Mizpah120191996
Ruby Valley 2120102004
Illipah120211968
Willis120241994

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.