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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±267.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±267.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±267.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.001.8
20270.460.001.8
20280.460.001.8
20290.460.001.8
20300.460.001.8

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Minerva10920151995
Dobbin Creek4020111995
Ruby Valley419991997
Majors Place320051996
Willis320251994
Jean Lake320102010
Comins Lake220162006
Cortez220221970
Austin220152008
Meadow Vally220251996
Ruby Valley 2220162004
Jarbidge220061997
Nixon220182018
Gardnerville 2220242018
Ranchogrande120211988
Fish Creek120142001
Walker Can120221968
Mizpah120191996
Illipah120211968

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.