BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Texas has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-6%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Texas. See the full index history below.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Texas is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Texas is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.64
20260.310.000.64
20270.310.000.64
20280.310.000.64
20290.310.000.64

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fitzhugh819831969
Indian Mtn820241977
Allen Creek520241994
Valentine519871969
Dripping Spg420241985
Boerne420231970
Leakey420241994
Bear Mtn420241988
Post420071996
Silver420052005
Winchell320241999
Ft. Stockton320082008
Ozona320222012
Pidcoke219961995
Montell220132000
Rockspring220231994
Devils R Cyn220241994
Toyahvale219991997
Mertzon220191974
Longfellow220191992
Salt Flat220132013
Ft. Davis120232004
Utopia120221969
Harper120221984
San Saba120241982

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.