BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Anna's Hummingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Anna's Hummingbird in Arizona has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+148%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Anna's Hummingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Anna's Hummingbird has surged in Arizona: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Anna's Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Anna's Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.14–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Anna's Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.14–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.120.54
20260.330.120.54
20270.340.130.55
20280.340.140.55
20290.350.140.56

Anna's Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Anna's Hummingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2520182018
Red Rock 2420192015
Wikieup220172015
Prescott220221980
New River220091990
Patagonia220221992
Organ Pipe120212021
Oatman120222011
Quartzsite120151996
Laguna120081974
Dateland120211994
Pomerene120222008
Peña Blanca120242001
Riviera120242010
Skull Valley120211997
Tonto Vill.120192017
Bartlett Res120241997
Araby120232000
Red Rock120142010
Redington120051995
Willow Beach 2120242016
Sahuarita120212021
Wickenburg120182017
Hope 2120172015
Sunizona 2120142014

Anna's Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskacalifornianevadaoregonwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.