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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Hooded Oriole in Arizona has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Oriole Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Oriole in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Hooded Oriole Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Arizona is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.16–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Arizona is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.16–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.161.3
20260.730.161.3
20270.740.161.3
20280.740.161.3
20290.740.161.3

Hooded Oriole Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redington920231993
Hope719961994
Pomerene620241968
Wickenburg620232019
Peña Blanca520241975
Cutter 2520182016
New River420161976
Skull Valley420231996
Peach Spring420241994
Sunizona319971970
Laguna219901968
Lukeville219801979
Patagonia220231970
Bates Well220231995
Riviera220161992
Williams220172017
Bartlett Res220241993
Cutter220141993
Red Rock220001992
Mcneal220241999
Casa Grande220181989
Organ Pipe120231992
Dragoon120061997
Portal120231976
Wikieup120221992

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in Other States

californianevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.