BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Oriole

IcteridaeForest birdsIcterus cucullatus

Hooded Oriole has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+241%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
180RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Hooded Oriole

The Hooded Oriole (Icterus cucullatus) is a North American member of the Blackbirds & Orioles (Icteridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6.5–17 in long (16–43 cm) — a small to medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 180 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Coastal California.
Family
Icteridae · Forest birds

Notable Hooded Oriole TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Oriole. See the full index history below.

Hooded Oriole Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.04–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.04–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.040.07
20260.050.040.07
20270.050.040.07
20280.060.040.07
20290.060.040.07

Where the Hooded Oriole Is Detected

BBS routes recording Hooded Oriole, sized by most recent count.

Hooded Oriole Population Trend by State

Hooded Oriole population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-4%197043
California+368%197082
Nevadainsufficient datan/a3
New Mexico-15%19936
Texas+488%197245
Utahinsufficient datan/a1

Hooded Oriole Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Hooded Oriole population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-2%19963
Edwards Plateau+31%19855
Coastal California+579%197058
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-37%197045
Sierra Madre Occidental-20%197019
Chihuahuan Desert-26%198313
Tamaulipan Brushlands+984%197625
Gulf Coastal Prairie+186%19925

Hooded Oriole Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 241% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.