BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Hooded Oriole in Texas has surged: up 488% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+488%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Oriole has surged in Texas: up 488% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Hooded Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.15–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.15–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.130.35
20260.250.140.36
20270.250.140.36
20280.260.140.37
20290.260.150.37

Hooded Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach1420091994
Rachal920231976
Agua Nueva920231979
Raymondville920241975
L. Atascosa Nwr720232004
Lag Atascosa620241969
Laredo620231994
San Pedro420231996
Sejita320242010
Montell320221995
Catarina 3320222018
Indian Mtn320171980
Kingsville220231997
Mirando City220232007
Catarina219971970
Pumpville220242024
Brite220212021
Guerra220231989
Comstock220121972
Black Gap220181992
El Sauz220152005
Dilley220232022
Zapata119871970
Randado120231991
Encinal120021979

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacalifornianevadanew-mexicoutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.