BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Hooded Oriole in California has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+368%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Oriole Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Oriole has surged in California: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hooded Oriole Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in California is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.18–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in California is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.18–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.140.83
20260.490.150.84
20270.500.160.84
20280.510.170.85
20290.520.180.86

Hooded Oriole Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harbor Lake 22620242014
San Ysidro1320191973
Oak Grove1220241969
Moreno1020242017
Willow Springs 21020232014
Orange Cove920012000
Santa Ynez720191972
S Catalina720222012
Coyote720241994
Parkfield620192017
Elsinore Mtn620241970
Cuyamaca Pk520242005
Foster Park419941968
Anza Borrego420241969
Ivanpah419941994
Mark West420241995
Jofegan 2320242024
Coachella Cn319881986
Creston319741972
Crescent Cty219741974
Morro Bay220191981
Poway219801973
Folsom220242003
Sisquoc220121971
Lake Cachuma219721972

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.