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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Hooded Oriole in California has surged: up 358% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+358%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Oriole Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Oriole has surged in California: up 358% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hooded Oriole Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in California is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.21–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in California is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.21–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.170.87
20270.530.180.88
20280.540.190.89
20290.550.200.89
20300.560.210.90

Hooded Oriole Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harbor Lake 22620242014
Oak Grove1420251969
San Ysidro1320191973
Willow Springs 21020232014
Moreno920252017
Orange Cove920012000
Coyote920251994
Santa Ynez720191972
Cuyamaca Pk720252005
Jofegan 2620252024
Foster Park419941968
Anza Borrego420251969
Ivanpah419941994
S Catalina420252012
Elsinore Mtn420251970
Coachella Cn319881986
Creston319741972
Crescent Cty219741974
Parkfield220252017
Morro Bay220191981
Poway219801973
Folsom220252003
Mesa Grande220252002
Sisquoc220121971
Lake Cachuma219721972

Hooded Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.