BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Oriole In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Hooded Oriole in Coastal California has surged: up 579% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+579%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Oriole has surged in Coastal California: up 579% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hooded Oriole In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Coastal California is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.50–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Coastal California is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.50–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.421.7
20261.10.441.7
20271.10.461.7
20281.10.481.7
20291.10.501.7

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA262024
San YsidroCALIFORNIA132019
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA122024
MorenoCALIFORNIA102024
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA92001
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA72019
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA72022
CoyoteCALIFORNIA72024
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA62019
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA62024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA52024
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA41994
Mark WestCALIFORNIA42024
CrestonCALIFORNIA31974
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA32024
Morro BayCALIFORNIA22019
PowayCALIFORNIA21980
FolsomCALIFORNIA22024
SisquocCALIFORNIA22012
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA21972
WestleyCALIFORNIA22023
MoragaCALIFORNIA22017
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA22023
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA22024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.