BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Oriole In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Hooded Oriole in Coastal California has surged: up 594% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+594%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Oriole has surged in Coastal California: up 593% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hooded Oriole In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Coastal California is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.56–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Coastal California is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.56–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.471.7
20271.10.491.8
20281.10.511.8
20291.20.541.8
20301.20.561.8

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA262024
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA142025
San YsidroCALIFORNIA132019
MorenoCALIFORNIA92025
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA92001
CoyoteCALIFORNIA92025
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA72019
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA72025
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA62025
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA41994
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA42025
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA42025
CrestonCALIFORNIA31974
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA22025
Morro BayCALIFORNIA22019
PowayCALIFORNIA21980
FolsomCALIFORNIA22025
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA22025
SisquocCALIFORNIA22012
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA21972
WestleyCALIFORNIA22023
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA22023
Mark WestCALIFORNIA22025
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA22024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.