BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Oriole In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Hooded Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Hooded Oriole In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.61
20260.290.000.61
20270.290.000.61
20280.290.000.61
20290.290.000.61

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow Springs 2CALIFORNIA102023
HopeARIZONA71996
WickenburgARIZONA62023
Cutter 2ARIZONA52018
New RiverARIZONA42016
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA42024
IvanpahCALIFORNIA41994
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA31988
LagunaARIZONA21990
LukevilleARIZONA21980
RivieraARIZONA22016
Red RockARIZONA22000
Casa GrandeARIZONA22018
Bates WellARIZONA22023
WikieupARIZONA12022
QuartzsiteARIZONA12011
FlorenceARIZONA11988
AjoARIZONA12008
Alamo Res.ARIZONA11994
Cibola LakeARIZONA12018
PisinimoARIZONA11993
Cabeza PrietARIZONA12019
Ajo 2ARIZONA12019
Organ PipeARIZONA12023
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.