BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+186%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Oriole has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Hooded Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.05–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.05–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.030.92
20260.480.040.93
20270.490.040.94
20280.490.050.94
20290.500.050.95

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola BeachTEXAS142009
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS72023
Lag AtascosaTEXAS62024
San PedroTEXAS42023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.