BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+173%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Oriole has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Hooded Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 161% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.03–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+161%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 161% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.03–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.010.91
20270.460.010.91
20280.470.010.92
20290.470.020.92
20300.470.030.93

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Hooded Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola BeachTEXAS142009
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22025
San PedroTEXAS12025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.