BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rufous Hummingbird Population Analysis

TrochilidaeForest birdsSelasphorus rufus

Rufous Hummingbird has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
301RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Rufous Hummingbird

The Rufous Hummingbird (Selasphorus rufus) is a North American member of the Hummingbirds (Trochilidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
3–5 in long (8–13 cm) — a tiny hovering bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 301 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 7 states, most concentrated in the Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Family
Trochilidae · Forest birds

Notable Rufous Hummingbird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous Hummingbird. See the full index history below.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.04–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.04–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.040.15
20270.100.040.15
20280.100.040.15
20290.100.040.15
20300.100.040.15

Where the Rufous Hummingbird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Rufous Hummingbird, sized by most recent count.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend by State

Rufous Hummingbird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-90%197728
California+27%197136
Idaho-44%197331
Montana-20%197626
Oregon-72%197092
Washington-68%197077
Wyoming+39%198911

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Rufous Hummingbird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-68%1970132
Great Basin-26%197060
Northern Rockies+43%197191
Sierra Nevada-61%197311

Rufous Hummingbird Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 24% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.