BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Rufous Hummingbird in Alaska has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-90%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous Hummingbird Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous Hummingbird has collapsed in Alaska: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Alaska is projected to rise about 381% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+381%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Alaska is projected to rise about 381% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.001.6
20270.370.001.5
20280.360.001.5
20290.350.001.5
20300.330.001.5

Rufous Hummingbird Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zarembo1020241993
Hyder820091994
Kuiu Island720102004
Beaver Creek719771977
Yakutat (Short)519841984
Haines320231972
Hoonah320241993
Whale Pass320241998
Sitka (Short)319921984
Sitka320241993
Stikine River220241998
Craig220251991
Chichagof Is220241994
Petersburg219871987
Thorne Bay220071991
Juneau Alt119851985
Juneau120191984
Ketchikan120221971
Skagway120251993
Cordova120221983
Kenny Lake119981998
Harlequin L.120241993
Copper River120112005
Mitkof Isle120251988
Thorne Bay 2120242013

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahomontanaoregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.