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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Rufous Hummingbird in Montana has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-11%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous Hummingbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous Hummingbird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Montana is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Montana is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.17
20260.080.000.17
20270.080.000.17
20280.080.000.17
20290.080.000.17

Rufous Hummingbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skalkho-Rye420112005
Whitefish Lake320242016
Victor219951995
Skalkaho219981995
Libby Dam120151984
Kalispell120162002
Logan Pass120191989
Threemile Wa120212021
Cramer Creek120162016
Greenough120032003
Elevation Mt120102009
St Regis120241980
Arlee120231976
Woodman120061969
Clinton120131987
Elliston120092009
Inside Road120161997
Sula120182015
Chestnut119851985
Red Rock119941994
Thompson Riv119961996
Ninemile120141997
Pagil Gulch120212021
Fish Creek120241995
Painted Rock120171994

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahooregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.