BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Rufous Hummingbird in California has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+27%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous Hummingbird Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous Hummingbird in California. See the full index history below.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.050.000.10
20230.050.000.10
20240.050.000.10
20250.050.000.10
20260.050.000.10

Rufous Hummingbird Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bodega Bay920031973
Horse Creek520191973
Orleans520091972
Mt Shasta420151976
Westville319721971
Mt Pinos319721972
Pine Mountain320062000
Eagle Lake219721972
Mccloud219951995
Shasta Lake219921992
Silver City220012001
Nubieber119971997
Crescent Cty120001972
Honeydew119681968
Holmes120022002
Red Bluff119701970
Gazelle119921992
Calpella119821982
Redwood N.P.119981995
Dardanelle119781978
Sattley120031974
Macdoel119741974
Cecilville120022000
Hay Fork120132013
Butte Meadow119731973

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomontanaoregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.