BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Rufous Hummingbird in Washington has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous Hummingbird Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Washington: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Washington is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Washington is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.002.3
20260.750.002.2
20270.700.002.2
20280.660.002.1
20290.610.002.1

Rufous Hummingbird Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newhalem1920241968
Montesand1320241986
Cougar920231968
South Elma920241975
Raymond820211993
Mendota 2820001989
Mendota619881977
Mendota 3620242005
Port Angeles520241970
Kendall520241981
Bay View520161994
Ozette420241971
Taholah420221969
Index419711968
Neilton419751975
Cedar Falls420141992
Pe Ell420231993
E. Mt. Adams420241998
Ronald320241973
Nighthawk320211994
Suiattle Riv320191993
Mazama320221994
Index319971997
Mt. Adams320191994
Lake Chelan320231995

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomontanaoregonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.