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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous Hummingbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.001.6
20270.700.001.6
20280.690.001.6
20290.670.001.6
20300.660.001.6

Rufous Hummingbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hauser819841970
Svensen819921990
Klickitat Mt719961993
Sandy River620061993
Salado520251968
Waldport520011992
Coquille520241994
Fisher520101997
Cool Camp420131968
Wedderburn420241970
Harlan 2420252011
Flora320092000
Winberry320231969
Molalla320221994
Shellrock220231968
Imnaha220251971
Logdell220252016
Buchanan220131989
Derby219931968
Modoc Point220141999
Garfield220251974
Camp Sherman219941972
Granite219951989
Elkton220241972
Lobster Creek220252025

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomontanawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.