BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous Hummingbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rufous Hummingbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.001.7
20260.750.001.7
20270.730.001.7
20280.720.001.6
20290.700.001.6

Rufous Hummingbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hauser819841970
Svensen819921990
Klickitat Mt719961993
Sandy River620061993
Waldport520011992
Coquille520241994
Selma520241994
Fisher520101997
Harlan 2520242011
Salado420241968
Cool Camp420131968
Wedderburn420241970
Flora320092000
Winberry320231969
Troy320181996
Molalla320221994
Santiam320241994
Shellrock220231968
Buchanan220131989
Derby219931968
Modoc Point220141999
Garfield220211974
Camp Sherman219941972
Granite219951989
Elkton220241972

Rufous Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomontanawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.