BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous Hummingbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Rufous Hummingbird in Great Basin has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous Hummingbird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.06–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.06–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.070.44
20260.250.060.44
20270.250.060.44
20280.250.060.43
20290.240.060.43

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewhalemWASHINGTON192024
KendallWASHINGTON52024
IndexWASHINGTON41971
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON42024
Dougal ResIDAHO32016
RonaldWASHINGTON32024
NighthawkWASHINGTON32021
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON32019
MazamaWASHINGTON32022
IndexWASHINGTON31997
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON32023
BuchananOREGON22013
Modoc PointOREGON22014
Camp ShermanOREGON21994
SistersOREGON22022
PauninaOREGON22004
RimrockWASHINGTON22023
SnowdenWASHINGTON22007
LeavenworthWASHINGTON22023
WilburWASHINGTON22001
EllensburgWASHINGTON22017
Blewett PassWASHINGTON22024
Index 2WASHINGTON22023
Cascade RivWASHINGTON22006
NubieberCALIFORNIA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.