BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous Hummingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Rockies has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+48%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.26
20260.120.000.26
20270.120.000.26
20280.120.000.26
20290.120.000.26

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA42011
Whitefish LakeMONTANA32024
FloraOREGON32009
TroyOREGON32018
SkalkahoMONTANA21998
VictorMONTANA21995
GraniteOREGON21995
Hells CanyonOREGON21995
BarnhouseOREGON22019
ChewelahWASHINGTON22005
CusickWASHINGTON22024
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON22023
RiversideWYOMING21990
AlpineWYOMING22008
Buckskin MtnWYOMING22019
NaplesIDAHO12024
MivodenIDAHO12019
AveryIDAHO12023
NezperceIDAHO12005
Lolo PassIDAHO12014
GrangevilleIDAHO11987
GoldenIDAHO11993
Cape HornIDAHO11993
ChallisIDAHO11983
CentervilleIDAHO12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.