BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous Hummingbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rufous Hummingbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.01–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.01–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.103.3
20261.70.083.3
20271.70.053.3
20281.60.033.2
20291.60.013.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Rufous Hummingbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontesandWASHINGTON132024
ZaremboALASKA102024
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA92003
CougarWASHINGTON92023
South ElmaWASHINGTON92024
HyderALASKA82009
HauserOREGON81984
SvensenOREGON81992
RaymondWASHINGTON82021
Mendota 2WASHINGTON82000
Beaver CreekALASKA71977
Kuiu IslandALASKA72010
Klickitat MtOREGON71996
Sandy RiverOREGON62006
MendotaWASHINGTON61988
Mendota 3WASHINGTON62024
Mitkof IsleALASKA52022
Yakutat (Short)ALASKA51984
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA52019
OrleansCALIFORNIA52009
WaldportOREGON52001
CoquilleOREGON52024
SelmaOREGON52024
FisherOREGON52010
Harlan 2OREGON52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.