BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Oklahoma

All statesOklahoma

38 species in this guild. As a group they are +27%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 2.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 2.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.72.13.3
20262.72.13.3
20272.72.13.4
20282.82.13.4
20292.82.23.4

Member Species In Oklahoma

Forest birds species in Oklahoma.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-85%
Bell's VireoVireonidae-66%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae-64%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-63%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-57%
American RobinTurdidae-55%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-54%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-52%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-36%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-21%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae-7%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+3%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+39%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+46%
American RedstartParulidae+48%
OvenbirdParulidae+53%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+61%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+63%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+74%
Ladder-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+101%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+102%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+118%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae+123%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+125%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+136%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+139%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+225%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+251%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+276%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+319%
Northern ParulaParulidae+319%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+329%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+339%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+349%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+420%
Black-capped VireoVireonidae+529%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+817%
Pine WarblerParulidae11×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.