BirdAnalyst
Guild · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Tennessee

All statesTennessee

71 species in this guild. As a group they are +5%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Tennessee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.8 (95% range 5.1–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.8 (95% range 5.1–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.85.16.5
20275.85.16.5
20285.85.16.5
20295.85.16.5
20305.85.16.6

Member Species In Tennessee

Forest birds species in Tennessee.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Yellow WarblerParulidae-97%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-95%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-88%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-55%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-49%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-49%
Blue JayCorvidae-48%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-46%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-40%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-40%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-30%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-29%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-24%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-21%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-21%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-21%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-19%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-16%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-8%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae-6%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-4%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+2%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+24%
American RedstartParulidae+31%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+38%
OvenbirdParulidae+38%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+54%
American RobinTurdidae+55%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+55%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+56%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+59%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+59%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+68%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+77%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+88%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+94%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+95%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+104%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+111%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+115%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+131%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+135%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+139%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+147%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+161%
VeeryTurdidae+167%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+169%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+175%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+188%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+208%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+209%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+213%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+229%
Canada WarblerParulidae+306%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+313%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+321%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+366%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+442%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+470%
Red CrossbillFringillidae+622%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+679%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+717%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+719%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+817%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+931%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae12×
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae16×
Pine WarblerParulidae17×
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae20×
Swainson's WarblerParulidae21×
Northern ParulaParulidae24×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.