BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Arkansas

All statesArkansas

60 species in this guild. As a group they are +15%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Arkansas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 4.9–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 4.9–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.44.86.0
20275.44.86.0
20285.44.86.1
20295.54.86.1
20305.54.96.1

Member Species In Arkansas

Forest birds species in Arkansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Field SparrowPasserellidae-85%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-79%
American RedstartParulidae-78%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-76%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-72%
Bell's VireoVireonidae-71%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-70%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-66%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-59%
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae-56%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae-55%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-52%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-48%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-46%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-43%
Blue JayCorvidae-39%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-37%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae-33%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae-26%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-26%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-24%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae-21%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae-21%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-15%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+2%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+3%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+3%
American RobinTurdidae+8%
OvenbirdParulidae+13%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+15%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+17%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae+19%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+20%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+23%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae+41%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+44%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+49%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+51%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+61%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+65%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+71%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+75%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+76%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+76%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+95%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+95%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+102%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+103%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+110%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+153%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+158%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+209%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+220%
Pine WarblerParulidae+234%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+347%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+406%
Northern ParulaParulidae+406%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+576%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+846%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae13×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.