BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Arkansas has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Arkansas is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.86–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.86–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Arkansas is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.86–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.743.1
20261.90.773.1
20272.00.803.2
20282.00.833.2
20292.00.863.2

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockesburg1620192010
Coal Hill1220231980
Russell1020212010
Lurton820082000
Princeton 2820222022
Ashdown720231967
Fulton720241968
Eudora520241967
Farwell520182010
Stark420241967
Havana420212010
Rudy420242011
Saffell320191999
Maynard320242021
Avoca320061967
England320242021
Kelso320162010
Locust Bayou220231994
South Bend220231971
Harrisburg220101972
Augusta220011973
Rupert220242023
Massard220221967
Springhill220222010
Poyen 2220242008

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamafloridageorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.