BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Louisiana has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Louisiana is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.2–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Louisiana is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.2–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.35.9
20263.61.35.8
20273.51.35.8
20283.51.25.7
20293.41.25.7

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ramah4120241988
Atchafalaya3420241989
Transylvania2220221999
Frogmore2020241998
Shaw1920241967
Carlisle1719881987
Lafitte1619911967
Natchez1420241992
Morgan City1420222011
Berwick1320181987
Morgan City1119861967
Glencoe1120181989
Esther1120241989
De Quincy1120191998
Mamou1019821967
Easton919901967
Longstreet920231968
Maurice920241988
Ltl Chenier 2920112010
Junior719911987
Freetown720191967
Mayflower720241967
Derry719891970
Lake Cove720182011
Brousville620242009

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansasmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.