BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Mississippi has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Mississippi is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Mississippi is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.000.96
20260.310.000.95
20270.300.000.94
20280.290.000.93
20290.280.000.92

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake Mary1919901974
Tchula719751970
Delta N.F.520161995
Warren Vick420222019
Utica319911966
Lucien320071967
Duck Hill319691969
Panther Swamp Nwr320182016
Tippo220241996
Mt Carmel220071993
Macon220242001
Weir220232016
Fort Adams220221975
Tchula 2219891976
Beverly119971966
Dundee120221990
Commerce119821966
Benton120241972
Isola120221968
Fayette120001973
Diberville119791979
Tallahatchie120241996
Grenada Lake120162016
Columbia120151978
Trace Hinds120212021

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansaslouisianamissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.