BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Florida has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has collapsed in Florida: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.25
20240.000.000.25
20250.000.000.25
20260.000.000.25
20270.000.000.25

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Augustine219801969
Hixtown Swmp219921992
Scottsmoor220151973
Kenansville219901990
Deanville120122012
Indiantown 2120222018
Doctor Inlet119951967
Lovedale119901990
St Lucie120172009
Ft Gadsden119841984
Hilliard120052004
San Antonio120192019
Merritt Isl120041999
Ft Mccoy119871987

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasgeorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.