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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Painted Bunting in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.2–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.2–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.2–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026148.719
2027148.819
2028149.019
2029149.119
2030149.220

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ardmore5620251967
Wichita Mtns East5120252004
Holdenville4720251967
Phillips4520251968
Mill Creek4320251967
Verden4120171967
Matoy4020251992
Heyburn4020251992
Tatums3920251992
Phroso3720251991
Wichita Mts West3520252004
Cooperton3320251992
Pocola3320161992
Wichita Mtns3219941994
Sandbluff3120251992
Ft Sill West2819941994
Goodwater2620211992
Sickles2620211992
Noble2420251967
Erick2420241971
Indianola2320251967
Cashion2220241992
Woodward2120251998
Mcalester2019911967
Duncan2020251986

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.