BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Oklahoma has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.0–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.0–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025138.617
2026138.717
2027138.817
2028138.918
2029139.018

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mts West5920222004
Holdenville4320241967
Verden4120171967
Wichita Mtns East4020222004
Cooperton3820241992
Heyburn3720241992
Tatums3320241992
Pocola3320161992
Wichita Mtns3219941994
Phroso2820241991
Ft Sill West2819941994
Goodwater2620211992
Sickles2620211992
Sandbluff2519951992
Phillips2420081968
Grimes2420241967
Erick2420241971
Ardmore2220091967
Cashion2220241992
Indianola2120241967
Noble2120241967
Mcalester2019911967
Matoy2020001992
Woodward1920241998
Colony1719951995

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.