BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in South Carolina has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in South Carolina is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in South Carolina is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.2
20261.90.004.2
20271.90.004.2
20281.90.004.2
20291.90.004.2

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Painted Bunting in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holly Hill1520241972
Kiawah Island1020241998
Nixville1020211998
New Ellenton920242010
Dale920241998
Olar820191998
Hardeeville720241967
Foreston620211966
Johns Isle519791966
Wagener520241966
Walterboro420171970
Jamestown319861967
Ward320212017
Kingstree320102010
Bishopville220232000
Little Mtn219791979
Carvers Bay219991999
Adams Run220171990
New Holland120241975
Plum Branch119791979
Greenwood120152010
Joanna120162016
Bennettsville119991999
Pinewood120191998

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.