BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Kansas has surged: up 716% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+716%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has surged in Kansas: up 716% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Kansas is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Kansas is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.001.6
20260.530.001.6
20270.540.001.7
20280.550.001.7
20290.560.001.7

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lapland12519861976
Coats920241978
Reece520242002
Humboldt420171986
Dalton420241968
Coldwater420222011
Galesburg320242010
Wellington320241968
Morehead320242021
Ashland220211990
Melrose120231976
St John119901990
Olathe119871970
Dover119971992
Barclay120212004
Wreford120231993
Albert119971987
Kanopolis120212012
Berwet120242006
Trading Post120222012
Le Loup120212009
Lincolnville120172009
Olsburg120112003
Longton120211999

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.