BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting Population Analysis

CardinalidaeForest birdsPasserina ciris

Painted Bunting has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
591RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Painted Bunting

The Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 591 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Family
Cardinalidae · Forest birds

Notable Painted Bunting TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.57–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.57–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.561.9
20271.20.561.9
20281.20.561.9
20291.20.571.9
20301.30.571.9

Where the Painted Bunting Is Detected

BBS routes recording Painted Bunting, sized by most recent count.

Painted Bunting Population Trend by State

Painted Bunting population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a3
Arkansas+41%196951
Florida-86%196914
Georgia-59%196831
Kansas+781%197124
Louisiana-6%196994
Mississippi-26%196837
Missouri+11%20057
New Mexico+228%20055
North Carolina-72%19685
Oklahoma+60%196963
South Carolina-15%196826
Tennesseeinsufficient datan/a2
Texas-11%1969229

Painted Bunting Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Painted Bunting population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie-88%196921
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+344%196960
Edwards Plateau+1%196921
Oaks and Prairies+29%196974
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-4%196921
Central Hardwoods-21%196922
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-25%196997
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+47%196861
Southeastern Coastal Plain-18%196892
Peninsular Florida-81%19719
Chihuahuan Desert+80%196932
Tamaulipan Brushlands-35%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie+13%196946

Painted Bunting Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 46% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.