BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 378% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+378%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 378% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 5.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 5.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.45.311
20268.55.412
20278.75.512
20288.85.712
20298.95.812

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA592022
Shields 2TEXAS552023
Pear ValleyTEXAS502024
VerdenOKLAHOMA412017
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA402022
CoopertonOKLAHOMA382024
WinchellTEXAS382024
Mertzon 2TEXAS332024
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA321994
PhrosoOKLAHOMA282024
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA281994
SicklesOKLAHOMA262021
GirardTEXAS262023
EldoradoTEXAS252023
GrimesOKLAHOMA242024
ErickOKLAHOMA242024
CashionOKLAHOMA222024
ChildressTEXAS212024
MertzonTEXAS202019
WoodwardOKLAHOMA192024
SilverTEXAS192024
Beaver CreekTEXAS192024
ColonyOKLAHOMA171995
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA151994
GraybackTEXAS152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.