BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+344%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Painted Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.55.412
20278.65.512
20288.85.712
20298.95.812
20309.06.012

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shields 2TEXAS552025
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA512025
VerdenOKLAHOMA412017
PhrosoOKLAHOMA372025
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA352025
Pear ValleyTEXAS352025
SilverTEXAS342025
CoopertonOKLAHOMA332025
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA321994
WinchellTEXAS322025
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA281994
SicklesOKLAHOMA262021
CharlieTEXAS262025
EldoradoTEXAS252023
LakeviewTEXAS252025
ErickOKLAHOMA242024
ChildressTEXAS242025
GirardTEXAS232025
CashionOKLAHOMA222024
Beaver CreekTEXAS222025
WoodwardOKLAHOMA212025
MertzonTEXAS202019
Mertzon 2TEXAS192025
GrimesOKLAHOMA182025
LookoutOKLAHOMA172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.