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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.1–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.1–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.06.6
20264.32.06.6
20274.32.06.7
20284.42.16.7
20294.42.16.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA412024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA342024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA222022
FrogmoreLOUISIANA202024
ShawLOUISIANA192024
CarlisleLOUISIANA171988
Morgan CityLOUISIANA142022
BerwickLOUISIANA132018
Morgan CityLOUISIANA111986
FreetownLOUISIANA72019
MayflowerLOUISIANA72024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI71975
BrousvilleLOUISIANA62024
KraemerLOUISIANA62024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA62024
EudoraARKANSAS52024
Port AllenLOUISIANA52024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI52016
KeystoneLOUISIANA42013
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI42022
SaffellARKANSAS32019
MaynardARKANSAS32024
EnglandARKANSAS32024
KelsoARKANSAS32016
ConcordLOUISIANA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.