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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.16.7
20274.42.16.7
20284.42.16.7
20294.52.26.8
20304.52.26.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA442025
RamahLOUISIANA372025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA262025
ShawLOUISIANA192024
CarlisleLOUISIANA171988
Morgan CityLOUISIANA142022
MayflowerLOUISIANA132025
BerwickLOUISIANA132018
Morgan CityLOUISIANA111986
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA112025
EnglandARKANSAS92025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA92025
KraemerLOUISIANA82025
FreetownLOUISIANA72019
TchulaMISSISSIPPI71975
BrousvilleLOUISIANA62025
Port AllenLOUISIANA52024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA52025
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI52016
KeystoneLOUISIANA42013
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI42025
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI42022
EudoraARKANSAS32025
South BendARKANSAS32025
SaffellARKANSAS32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.