BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 18–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 18–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271736
2027271836
2028271836
2029271836
2030281837

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FanninTEXAS1022025
GrafordTEXAS952025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS652025
PaigeTEXAS652025
MuldoonTEXAS642025
OlneyTEXAS632024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA562025
DecaturTEXAS542024
BurtonTEXAS532025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS512025
Massey LakeTEXAS502025
Thornton 2TEXAS492010
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA472025
AlbanyTEXAS472025
Three RiversTEXAS462025
CarlosTEXAS452025
CottonwoodTEXAS442025
RhomeTEXAS442025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA432025
DuranTEXAS421999
SchroederTEXAS411997
YoakumTEXAS412025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA402025
CayugaTEXAS402025
TatumsOKLAHOMA392025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.