BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 18–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 18–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261735
2026261735
2027261735
2028271836
2029271836

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaigeTEXAS702024
AlbanyTEXAS652024
OlneyTEXAS632024
FanninTEXAS572023
BurtonTEXAS552024
DecaturTEXAS542024
CottonwoodTEXAS532024
Thornton 2TEXAS492010
YoakumTEXAS452024
Massey LakeTEXAS442024
CarlosTEXAS442024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA432024
CayugaTEXAS432024
HobsonTEXAS422024
Three RiversTEXAS422024
DuranTEXAS421999
SchroederTEXAS411997
HearneTEXAS412024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS392024
RhomeTEXAS382024
Thornton 3TEXAS382024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA372024
GauseTEXAS371997
MuldoonTEXAS352024
MegargelTEXAS352024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.