BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.41
20260.150.000.41
20270.150.000.41
20280.150.000.41
20290.150.000.41

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaplandKANSAS1251986
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA172022
ReeceKANSAS52024
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA52017
WainwrightOKLAHOMA52013
HumboldtKANSAS42017
GalesburgKANSAS32024
MoreheadKANSAS32024
WelchOKLAHOMA32024
PeoriaOKLAHOMA22023
MelroseKANSAS12023
OlatheKANSAS11987
DoverKANSAS11997
BarclayKANSAS12021
WrefordKANSAS12023
LongtonKANSAS12021
Trading PostKANSAS12022
Le LoupKANSAS12021
LincolnvilleKANSAS12017
OlsburgKANSAS12011
ForakerOKLAHOMA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.