BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.45
20260.020.000.44
20270.020.000.43
20280.010.000.43
20290.000.000.42

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS112017
Frankel CityTEXAS51994
PostTEXAS32024
ChanningTEXAS32013
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22024
RankinTEXAS22024
LamesaTEXAS22023
KermitTEXAS21999
StilesTEXAS22024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12017
LoganNEW-MEXICO12019
PlainsTEXAS12023
MiamiTEXAS12023
FloydadaTEXAS12018
MentoneTEXAS12008
MidlandTEXAS12001
DoughertyTEXAS12024
GruverTEXAS12010
Kermit 2TEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.