BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.000.87
20270.430.000.87
20280.420.000.86
20290.410.000.85
20300.410.000.85

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI191990
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA152025
NixvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA142025
WadleyGEORGIA112025
DoverGEORGIA112025
White HillGEORGIA112025
Holly HillSOUTH-CAROLINA102025
JacksonboroGEORGIA92025
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA92025
New HollandSOUTH-CAROLINA92025
OlarSOUTH-CAROLINA82019
DaleSOUTH-CAROLINA82025
WagenerSOUTH-CAROLINA72025
Colonels IslandGEORGIA62023
New EllentonSOUTH-CAROLINA62025
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA51979
GuytonGEORGIA41993
KellerGEORGIA41994
MillenGEORGIA42025
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA42025
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA42017
FinleysonGEORGIA32024
Ware CoGEORGIA31987
UnionGEORGIA32024
UticaMISSISSIPPI31991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.