BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.000.83
20260.400.000.82
20270.390.000.82
20280.380.000.81
20290.380.000.80

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WadleyGEORGIA222024
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI191990
DoverGEORGIA152024
Holly HillSOUTH-CAROLINA152024
NixvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA102021
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA102024
JacksonboroGEORGIA92024
New EllentonSOUTH-CAROLINA92024
DaleSOUTH-CAROLINA92024
White HillGEORGIA82024
OlarSOUTH-CAROLINA82019
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA72024
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA72024
Colonels IslandGEORGIA62023
ForestonSOUTH-CAROLINA62021
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA51979
WagenerSOUTH-CAROLINA52024
GuytonGEORGIA41993
KellerGEORGIA41994
MillenGEORGIA42024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA42017
FinleysonGEORGIA32024
Ware CoGEORGIA31987
Pineora 2GEORGIA32024
NorwoodLOUISIANA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.