BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsForest birds

Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026160.0037
2027160.0037
2028150.0037
2029150.0037
2030150.0036

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RachalTEXAS1222023
Agua NuevaTEXAS1022023
Millett 2TEXAS852024
CatarinaTEXAS522010
HondoTEXAS482025
George WestTEXAS432025
El IndioTEXAS322007
RandadoTEXAS302025
MillettTEXAS302012
EncinalTEXAS292010
SejitaTEXAS282024
Encinal 2TEXAS262025
San YgnacioTEXAS251985
RaymondvilleTEXAS232025
El SauzTEXAS222023
Catarina 2TEXAS222017
Catarina 3TEXAS222025
Mirando CityTEXAS202025
LaredoTEXAS172023
KingsvilleTEXAS162024
DilleyTEXAS162025
GuerraTEXAS152025
La PryorTEXAS102017
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS82025
Pedro CreekTEXAS52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.