BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025160.0037
2026150.0037
2027150.0037
2028150.0037
2029150.0036

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RachalTEXAS1222023
Agua NuevaTEXAS1022023
George WestTEXAS1012024
Millett 2TEXAS852024
CatarinaTEXAS522010
HondoTEXAS452024
GuerraTEXAS372023
El IndioTEXAS322007
MillettTEXAS302012
EncinalTEXAS292010
SejitaTEXAS282024
DilleyTEXAS272024
San YgnacioTEXAS251985
Catarina 3TEXAS242024
El SauzTEXAS222023
Catarina 2TEXAS222017
RandadoTEXAS212024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS212023
Mirando CityTEXAS202024
LaredoTEXAS172023
KingsvilleTEXAS162024
Encinal 2TEXAS122024
RaymondvilleTEXAS112024
La PryorTEXAS102017
Pedro CreekTEXAS52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.