BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Texas has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
226Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Texas. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.9–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.9–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025147.921
2026147.921
2027147.921
2028147.921
2029147.921

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rachal12220231967
Agua Nueva10220231969
George West10120241967
Millett 28520242013
Paige7020242015
Pidcoke 26920242018
Albany6520241969
Harper6320241969
Olney6320241970
Fannin5720231998
Longfellow5620241968
Burton5520241996
Shields 25520232004
Decatur5420241995
Cottonwood5320241967
Catarina5220101970
Pidcoke5120171968
Pear Valley5020241969
Thornton 24920101985
Allen Creek4820241994
Valley Spgs4720241967
Dripping Spg4720241985
Hondo4520241969
Yoakum4520241994
Devils R Cyn4520241994

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennessee

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.