BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Painted Bunting in Texas has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
229Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Texas. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.2–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.2–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026158.221
2027158.221
2028158.221
2029158.221
2030158.221

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rachal12220231967
Agua Nueva10220231969
Fannin10220251998
Graford9520251967
Pidcoke 28820252018
Millett 28520242013
Allen Creek6920251994
Arenosa Crk6520251968
Paige6520252015
Muldoon6420251970
Harper6420251969
Olney6320241970
Valley Spgs5620251967
Kempner5620251970
Bayside 35620252005
Shields 25520252004
Adamsville5420251971
Decatur5420241995
Burton5320251996
Catarina5220101970
Pidcoke5120171968
Oak Grove 25120252003
Massey Lake5020251970
Thornton 24920101985
Hondo4820251969

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennessee

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.